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Prediction for CME (2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-06-21T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8736/-1
CME Note: From near disk center, AR 12371. Associated with M-class flares.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T17:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -195
Dst min. time: 2015-06-23T05:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T22:50Z (-5.0h, +8.0h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

I used the ElEvo model, which is a 2D extension to DBM:

reference: Möstl et al. 2015
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150526/ncomms8135/full/ncomms8135.html

Kevin Schenk CME measurements sent out via soho-halo-alert@mail.nascom.nasa.gov give me the initial speed 1300 km/s on 21 June 2015 0530 at 20 Rs,  assume E13 as propagation direction; this is the source position of the flare. I vary initial speed (+/-100 km/s) and direction (E3 to E23)

ElEvo parameters:
drag parameter: 0.1-0.15, low value because of the 2 previous CMEs
Background wind  = 400 km/s of as seen in real time by ACE on early June 22

halfwidth=50 (assuming full width 100° for wide CMEs)
ellipse aspect ratio: 1.4 +/- 0.2

gives errors in arrival 22 Jun 18:10 830 km/s to 23 Jun 06:30 616 km/s, for extreme choices of the parameters that produce early or late arrivals; the average values are:

gamma=0.125
aspect ratio =1.4
initial speed =1300 km/s
gives arrival at Wind: 22 June 22:50 with shock speed 730 km/s

SUMMARY:
ElEvo predicts the CME shock to arrive at Wind 22 June 22:50 UT (-5h / + 8h) with shock speed of 730 km/s +/-100 km/s

Lead Time: 8.65 hour(s)
Difference: -4.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Christian Moestl (ASWO) on 2015-06-22T09:20Z

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